22-26 April 2024
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.25 | u/c | May24 | £180.55 | +£7.55 |
| £/€ | 1.17 | u/c | Nov24 | £205.60 | +£10.45 |
| Nymex Oil | $83.57 | +$0.84 | Nov25 | £205.55 | +£8.85 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May24 | Nov24* | May24 | Nov24* | May24 | Nov24* | |
| Closing diff. | -£4 | –£14 | -£2 | –£1 | -£42 | -£56 |
| Change on week | +£11 | +£6 | -£6 | +£2 | -£4 | -£6 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- A total of 845 lots (84,500 tonnes) of original wheat was tendered against May24 Liffe positions on first tender day (Wednesday) taking out around half of the open interest.
- Nov24 Liffe wheat futures set a 4-month closing high (£205.60) on Thursday led by a wider market rally.
Update:
- Still no EU export/import data due to ongoing technical issues.
- MARS crop monitoring unit revised EU-27 crop24 yield forecasts: soft wheat 5.93t/ha (vs 5.91 last month; 5.82 in 2023; 5.87 5-year average); winter barley 5.97t/ha (vs 5.95; 6.05; 5.91); spring barley 4.32t/ha (vs 4.25; 3.59; 4.09); osr 3.26t/ha (vs 3.25; 3.20; 3.18).
- EU Commission revised EU-27 crop24 production forecasts: soft wheat 120.2m (vs 120.8m last month; 125.6m in 2023), barley 53.6m (vs 53.7m; 47.5m), maize 69m (vs 69m; 62.3m), osr 19.4m (vs 19.5m; 19.8m).
- At 22 Apr, Agrimer rated the 2024 French soft wheat crop at 63% good/excellent (vs 64% last week; 94% last ytd), winter barley 66% (vs 67%; 91%), spring barley 73% (vs 63%; 94%) with 26% of the maize crop planted (vs 13%; 37%).
Update:
- IKAR forecast Russian 2023/4 season wheat exports at 53m (vs 52m previous forecast; 48.1m in 2022/3) with all cereals put at 72m (vs 70m; 62.2m)
- SovEcon trimmed their Russian crop24 wheat forecast to 93m (vs 94m previous forecast; 92.8m in 2023) with hot/dry conditions still place across much of southern Russia.
- At 23 Apr, the Russian Ag-Min reported that 1.0m ha of 2024 spring wheat was drilled (vs 1.3m last ytd; 13.4m target 2024 area; 14.1m final 2023 area); spring barley 1.6m ha (vs 2.0m; 7.2m; 7.2m); maize 0.7m ha (vs 0.2m; 2.7m; 2.7m).
- Ukrainian Ag-Min report Jul-24 Apr grain exports at 40m (vs 40.7m last ytd) including wheat 15.2m, maize 22.0m, barley 2.2m…with the pace of exports remaining high despite an intensification of Russian missile/drone strikes on key Black Sea ports.
- Argus trimmed their 2024 Ukrainian wheat crop forecast to a 12-year low 19.9m (vs 20.2m previous forecast; 22.4m in 2023).
- 1 April Indian central wheat stocks reported at a 16-year low 7.5m (vs 8.4m last ytd; 16.7m 10-year average).
- At 21 Apr, the US 2024 winter wheat crop was rated 50% good/excellent (vs 55% last week; 26% last ytd) with 15% of the spring wheat planted (vs 7%; 4%) and 12% of the maize area (vs 6%; 12%).
Grain markets roared back into life this week, with deteriorating wheat crop conditions in the US and Russia combined with the bombardment of Ukrainian Black Sea ports finally sparking a Fund led short covering rally…expect more volatility to follow. MS