2nd May 2025
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on prev. | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.3278 | -0.0031 | May25 | £160.00 | -£3.10 |
| £/€ | 1.1760 | +0.0045 | Nov25 | £183.00 | +£0.65 |
| Nymex Oil | $59.24 | -$3.55 | Nov26 | £191.80 | +£0.15 |
Note – Comparisons below are against values quoted in last report dated 24th April 2025.
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May25* | Nov25* | May25* | Nov25* | May25* | Nov25* | |
| Closing diff. | -£17 | –£24 | +£12 | +£3 | -£22 | -£50 |
| Change on week | +£0 | -£3 | -£6 | -£3 | +£8 | -£2 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- The UK experienced around 50% less rain than would usually be expected in April with temperatures above normal as well
- Overall winter wheat crops declined from 67% good or excellent to 60% because of dry weather.
- Rapeseed crops in contrast have improved slightly and generally are looking good.
Update:
- French ‘cash’ markets continue to weaken with lack of demand and plentiful supply adding to new crop now only being a couple of months away.
- Agrimer reported French soft wheat conditions rated at 74% good to excellent, this is unchanged from the previous week, and up from 63% at the same point last year.
- EU wheat exports seen at 18.1mmt for 2024/25, down over a third on last year.
Update:
- Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reports that Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop is estimated at 20.5 mmt, an increase on last year’s harvest of 18.6mmt and second highest ever
- USDA attache sees Canada wheat production rising 2% in 2025/26
- Global grain stocks are now seen at 868.2mmt at the end of the 2024/25 season, down from 873.3mmt from previous forecast, according to a report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.
With less talk around trade deals in the last week, although some positive news for prices with China and the US potentially starting talks, the market has gone back to looking at the fundamentals. Typically, this time of year we are entering ‘weather markets’ with Northern EU, South Russia and Ukraine particularly dry and needing some rain. Demand remains slow, although talk of China entering the market to buy might (might) just spook the fund shorts enough to push the market up.
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