2 – 6 Sep 2024
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.32 | u/c | Nov24 | £181.55 | -£0.60 |
| £/€ | 1.19 | u/c | May25 | £195.60 | +£1.00 |
| Nymex Oil | $68.50 | -$7.41 | Nov25 | £194.20 | +£3.20 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov24* | Nov25* | Nov24* | Nov25* | Nov24* | Nov25* | |
| Closing diff. | -£22 | –£16 | +£3 | +£4 | -£59 | -£61 |
| Change on week | +£8 | +£4 | +£3 | u/c | +£5 | u/c |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- At 28 Aug, AHDB estimated average UK wheat yield at 7.5t/ha (vs 8.1 5-year average); winter barley 6.1 t/ha (vs 7.0); spring barley 5.5 t/ha (vs 5.9); oats 5.1 t/ha (vs 5.4), osr 3.0 t/ha (vs 3.2)…these estimates will be updated on 13 Sep.
Update:
- EU-27 2024/5 season soft wheat exports to date total 4.4m (vs 5.7m last ytd), barley exports 1.3m (vs 1.8m), maize imports 3.5m (vs 2.9m).
- French grower group AGPB estimate the 2024 soft wheat crop at 26.0m (vs 35.1m in 2023).
- Strategie Grains cut their 2024 EU-27 osr crop estimate to 16.9m (vs 17.3m previous forecast; 19.9m in 2023).
- At 2/9, AgriMer rated the 2024 French maize crop at 79% good/excellent (vs 79% last week; 80% last ytd).
Update:
- SovEcon trimmed their 2024 Russian wheat crop forecast to 82.5m (vs 82.9m previous forecast; 92.8m in 2023).
- Ukrainian Ag-Min has set the initial 2024/5 season wheat export quota at 16.2m (vs 18.3m actual exports over the 2023/4 season)…interesting to note that 3.6m was exported over Jul-Aug24 (vs 1.1m last ytd).
- Ukraine Ag-Min forecasting the 2025 wheat area at up to 5.0m ha (vs 4.7m in 2024) as farmers move away from osr.
- Dry conditions being reported across the Russian and Ukrainian winter wheat belts…one to keep an eye on.
- Indian 2024 monsoon rainfall (Jun-Sep) now forecast to hit 109% of the long-term average.
- Chinese Jan-Jul24 wheat imports reported at 10.0m (vs 8.6m last ytd), barley imports 9.7m (vs 5.9m), maize imports 12.1m (vs 13.7m).
- Abares forecast the 2024/5 Australian wheat crop at 31.8m (vs 29.1m previous forecast; 25.9m in 2023/4), barley 12.2m (vs 11.5m;10.7m), osr 5.5m (vs 5.4m; 6.0m)…each crop being in the top 5 ever recorded.
- At 1/9, the US 2024 maize crop was rated 65% good/excellent (vs 65% last week; 53% last ytd), soyabeans 65% (vs 67%; 53%).
- Allendale survey puts the 2024 US maize crop at 383m (vs 390m in 2023), soyabeans 125.2m (vs 113.4m).
- Celeres initially forecast the 2024/5 Brazilian maize crop at 134.1m (vs 129.2m in 2023/4), soyabeans 169.9m (vs 152m).
A relatively quiet week, with European markets consolidating recent small gains but currently lacking the impetus to move higher…USDA report next Thursday might liven things up! MS
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