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Weekly Executive Summary
May 20, 2022

16-20 May 2022

Currency / Oil:CloseChange on weekLIFFE Wheat:CloseChange on
week
£/$1.25+0.03May22£336.30-£12.35
£/€1.18+0.01Nov22£330.80-£2.35
Nymex Oil$112.21+$6.08Nov23£270.65-£10.80
As of Thursday evening close

Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:

CBOT/LIFFECBOT/LIFFEMATIF/LIFFEMATIF/LIFFECBOT/LIFFE(Corn/FdWht)
Nov22*Nov23*Nov22*Nov23*Nov22*Nov23*
Closing differential2649232699-£66
Change on week2+£3+£7+£7-£9+£4
Note:
1.      Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2.      Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3.      Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4.      All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends

Update:

  • UK Jan-Mar wheat exports reported at 0.30m (vs 0.18m last ytd), wheat imports 1.51m (vs 1.89m), barley exports 0.62m (1.15m), maize imports 1.56m (vs 2.20m),
  • Widespread rainfall across the UK this week seen as beneficial for developing crops.
  • UK annual inflation rate to end Apr22 hit 9.0%…a 40-year high.

Update:

  • EU-27 2021/2 season soft wheat exports total 23.0m (vs 23.9m last ytd), barley exports 6.7m (vs 7.1m), maize imports 14.2m (vs 13.4m).
  • At 16 May, Agrimer rated the 2022 French soft wheat crop at 73% good/excellent (vs 82% last week; 79% last ytd), winter barley 71% (vs 79%; 75%), spring barley 69% (vs 76%; 84%) with ongoing dry conditions now impacting on crops…the maize crop is now 98% sown (vs 91%; 97%).

Update:

  • At 13 May, the Russian Ag-Min report that 13.7m ha of 2022 spring grains were planted (vs 12.3m last ytd; 29.7m final area in 2021; 29.8m target 2022 area)
  • IKAR increased their 2022 Russian wheat crop forecast to 85m (vs 83.5m previous forecast; 76m in 2021)
  • Ukr-Agro forecast 2022 Ukrainian wheat crop at 19.8m (vs 33.0m in 2021), maize 21.5m (vs 42.1m)
  • UN has requested a safe export corridor for Ukrainian grain through Odessa…but with Russia demanding a lifting of sanctions in return, this currently looks unlikely.
  • Having announced a wheat export ban over the weekend, India has subsequently announced the sale of 500k wheat to Egypt…adding more confusion into the market.
  • Chinese customs report Jan-Apr22 wheat imports at 3.7m (vs 3.8m last ytd), maize 9.3m (vs 8.6m), barley 2.5m (vs 3.5m). At 12 May, the 2022 US winter wheat crop was rated 27% good/excellent (vs 29% last week; 48% last ytd) with the maize crop now 49% planted (vs 22%; 78%)
  • Kansas wheat tour forecasts the 2022 winter wheat average yield at 39.7 bu/ac (vs 47.4 5-year average) with the crop put at 7.1m (vs 9.9m in 2021).
  • Frost seen to be a threat to the safrihna maize crop across S Parana in Brazil with Conab currently forecasting 2021/2 Brazilian maize production at 114.6m (vs 115.6m last month; 87.1m in 2020/1), soyabeans 123.8m (vs 122.4m; 138.2m)
  • Argentina considering increasing their 2021/2 harvest season maize export limit to 35m (vs 30m previous limit; 41.6m exports from the 2020/1 crop).
  • IGC cut their 2022/3 global wheat production forecast to 769m (vs 780m last month; 781m in 2021/2), maize production 1184m (vs 1197m; 1214m) with global end 2022/3 cereal stocks put at 580m (vs 581m; 607m).

Comments:

Another wild week on the markets with a strong rally on Monday followed by sharp corrections over the remainder of the period…expect more extreme price volatility to follow.

MS


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