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Weekly Executive Summary
August 12, 2022

8-12 August 2022

Currency / Oil:CloseChange on weekLIFFE Wheat:CloseChange on
week
£/$1.22u/cNov22£272.80+£6.80
£/€1.18-0.01May23£277.80+£6.80
Nymex Oil$94.34+$5.80Nov23£247.30+£5.35
As of Thursday evening close

Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:

CBOT/LIFFECBOT/LIFFEMATIF/LIFFEMATIF/LIFFECBOT/LIFFE(Corn/FdWht)
Nov22*Nov23*Nov22*Nov23*Nov22*Nov23*
Closing diff.251071270-£56
Change on week1u/c-£5+£1u/c-£1
Note:
1.      Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2.      Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3.      Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4.      All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends

Update:

  • Strategie Grains forecast the 2022 UK wheat crop at 14.6m (vs 14.7m last month; 14.0m in 2021), barley 6.9m (vs 7.1m; 7.0m).

Update:

  • EU-27 2022/3 season soft wheat exports to date reported at 2.5m (vs 2.4m last ytd), barley exports 0.9m (vs 1.8m), maize imports 2.0m (vs 1.4m).
  • Romanian Ag-Min estimates the 2022 wheat crop at 8.5-8.8m (vs 10.3m in 2021).
  • Bulgarian Ag-Min estimates the 2022 wheat crop at 6.3m (vs 7.2m in 2021) .
  • At 8/8, Agrimer rated the 2022 French maize crop at 53% good/excellent (vs 62% last week; 91% last ytd).
  • Strategie Grains revised EU27 2022 production forecasts: soft wheat 123.3m (vs 123.3m last month; 129.8m in 2021), barley 50.0m (vs 49.6m; 51.9m), maize 55.4m (vs 65.4m; 69.8m), all cereals 265.0m (vs 275.0m; 290.2m).

Update:

  • IKAR raised their 2022 Russian wheat crop forecast to an eye-watering 95m (vs 90.5m previous forecast; 76m in 2021)…they put barley at 21.5m (vs 18m in 2021), maize 15.3m (vs 15.2m), all cereals 144.5m (vs 121.4m)
  • Ukr-Agro cut their 2022 Ukrainian wheat crop forecast to 18.5m (vs 20m previous forecast; 32m in 2021) following an extended dry period.
  • The first maize vessel exported from Ukraine through the new safe corridor was rejected in Lebanon and is now heading to Turkey!
  • Moroccan 2022 cereal crop estimated at 3.4m (vs 10.3m in 2021)…following devasting drought.
  • At 7 Aug the 2022 Indian monsoon was reported at 106% of normal, with the Indian government set to scrap the current 40% import duty on wheat.
  • At 7 Aug, the 2022 US maize crop was rated 58% good/excellent (vs 61% last week; 64% last ytd), soyabeans 59% (vs 59%; 60%), spring wheat 64% (vs 70%; 53%).
  • US CPC report ongoing La-Nina conditions with an 86% chance this continues throughout autumn 2022 and a 60% likelihood to the end of Feb23…one to follow closely!
  • Buenos Aries Exchange rate the 2022/3 Argentinean wheat crop at 18% good/excellent (vs 17% last week; 47% last ytd) as dry conditions persist, with the Rosario Exchange putting the crop at 17.7m (vs 23m in 2021/2).
  • Conab forecast the 2021/2 Brazilian maize crop at 114.7m (vs 115.7m last month; 87.1m in 2020/1), soyabeans 124m (vs 124m; 138.2m) with the 2022/3 wheat crop put at 9.2m (vs 7.7m in 2021/2).

Comments:

Grain markets have posted solid gains so far this week led by downgrades to the EU maize crop which looks set to fall to a 15-year low, with Strategie Grains putting the 2022 EU cereal crop 25m (11.5%) lower than last year…a big hole! Look out for the monthly USDA update at 5pm today.

MS


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