20th March 2025
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.2946 | +0.0054 | May25 | £175.20 | +£0.30 |
| £/€ | 1.1928 | -0.0006 | Nov25 | £194.85 | +£4.25 |
| Nymex Oil | $66.91 | +$0.36 | Nov26 | £199.55 | +£1.00 |
Note – Comparisons below are against values quoted in last report dated 14th March 2025.
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May25* | Nov25* | May25* | Nov25* | May25* | Nov25* | |
| Closing diff. | -£15 | –£19 | +£16 | +£6 | -£34 | -£57 |
| Change on week | +£0 | -£4 | +£1 | -£1 | +£3 | -£4 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- UK old crop prices remain supported, especially in the North with a lack of farm selling.
- May 25 LIFFE futures fall to a £20 discount to November 25, leaning towards another big carryout.
- Old crop malting barley demand remains slow, favourable weather allowing for good progress on Spring plantings.
Update:
- Turkish grain board announced it is permitting tariff free wheat imports. After a good harvest last year Turkey restricted grain imports to protect farmers from lower prices. Also, they will allow up to 1mmt of Corn imports.
- Iran bought 500,000mt of Russian wheat in the last week for Apr-Jun shipment.
- Dry weather in Ukraine shouldn’t affect 2025 spring planting expectations, with spring grains at 5.7 million hectares, sunflowers at 5.0 mln ha and soybeans at 2.3 mln ha.
Update:
- Allendale (US commodity broker) estimates 2025 US corn plantings at 93.98 million acres with soybeans at 84.28 million acres, both figures close to USDA forecast.
- Brazilian oilseed association Abiove estimates 2024/25 soybean production at 170.9 MMT, down from 171.7 MMT.
- Global physical wheat prices gained $4/mt in the last week.
New crop markets have seen a boost in the last week with tariffs taking a back seat for a change and market fundamentals in the forefront. We are still not seeing enough for a full-on bull run but a few issues around the world related to moisture deficit have just stopped markets from falling further. Old crop prices will mainly be determined by new crop values now with less and less time available to place UK surplus. Uncertainty remains over peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US and what effect that has on prices..
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