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Weekly Executive Summary
May 24, 2024

20-24 May 2024

Note – comparisons below are against the values quoted in the last Exec Summary dated 3 May

Currency / Oil:CloseChange on weekLIFFE Wheat:CloseChange on
week
£/$1.27+0.02Nov24£219.20+£14.60
£/€1.17u/cMay25£225.90+£14.90
Nymex Oil$76.87-$2.08Nov25£210.55+£8.05
As of Thursday Evening Close

Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:

CBOT/LIFFECBOT/LIFFEMATIF/LIFFEMATIF/LIFFECBOT/LIFFE(Corn/FdWht)
Nov24*Nov25*Nov24*Nov25*Nov24*Nov25*
Closing diff.-£5+£56+£86858
Change on week+£9+£8+£9+£2-£14-£4
Note:
1.      Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2.      Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3.      Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4.      All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends

Update:

  • UK Jul-Mar wheat exports reported at 0.19m (v 1.15m last ytd), wheat imports 1.92m (vs 1.72m), barley exports 0.63m (vs 0.88m), maize imports 1.64m (vs 1.00m)
  • UK Apr24 CPI fell to 2.3% (vs 3.2% last month)…a 33 month low.

Update:

  • EU-27 2023/4 season soft wheat exports to 3 May reported at 26.3m; barley exports 5.1m; maize imports 15.7m…with no direct comparisons to last season issued.
  • German co-op DRV forecast the 2024 wheat crop at 20.3m (vs 20.2m last month; 21.5m in 2023), osr 3.9m (vs 3.9m; 4.2m).
  • At 20 May, Agri-Mer rated the French 2024 soft wheat crop at 63% good/excellent (vs 64% last week; 93% last ytd), winter barley 66% (vs 66%; 90%), spring barley 73% (vs 74%; 95%) with 78% of the maize crop now sown (vs 73%; 93%).

Update:

  • IKAR cut their 2024 Russian wheat crop forecast to 83.5m (vs 86m previous forecast; 92.8m in 2023), barley 18m (vs 18.5m; 21.1m), maize 16m (vs 16m; 17m), all grains 132m (vs 135m; 145.3m) following recent frosts and persisting dry conditions across the winter grain belt.
  • At 21 May, Russian 2024 spring wheat plantings totalled 6.3m ha (vs 8.0m last ytd; 13.4m target area; 14.1m final 2023 area), spring barley 4.6m ha (vs 5.7m; 7.2m; 7.2m), maize 2.1m ha (vs 2.1m; 2.7m; 2.7m) with wet conditions in eastern Russia delaying drillings.
  • Ukraine met office reports negligible damage to grain and oilseed crop from recent frosts.
  • Indian government crop24 wheat purchases to date reported at 26.0m (vs 30-31m target; 26.2m final crop23 purchases)…with the final tonnage now expected to be around 27m.
  • Ag-Canada forecast the 2024 all-wheat crop at 34.6m (vs 32m in 2023), barley 9.5m (vs 8.9m), maize 14.9m (vs 15.1m), oats 3.5m (vs 2.6m), osr 18.1m (vs 18.3m), linseed 260k (vs 273k), peas 3.0m (vs 2.6m).
  • At 19 May, the 2024 US winter wheat crop was rated 49% good/excellent (vs 50% last week; 31% last ytd) with the spring wheat crop now 79% sown (vs 61%; 57%) and maize 70% (vs 49%; 76%).
  • Kansas wheat tour forecasts the 2024 wheat yield (in the top US wheat State) at 46.5 bu/ac (vs 38.0 current USDA forecast; 35.0 in 2023; 44.2 5-year average)…note – this is 1.26t/ac.
  • USDA forecasts the 2024 US wheat crop at 50.6m (vs 49.3m in 2023), maize 377m (vs 390m), soybeans 121m (vs 113m)
  • IGC forecast global 2024/5 wheat crop at 795m (vs 798m last month; 790m in 2023/4), use 801m (vs 803m; 806m), ending stock 260m (vs 259m; 266m); wheat+coarse grains crop 2312m (vs 2322m; 2297m), use 2320m (vs 2321m; 2311m), end stock 580m (vs 592m; 588m).

Grain markets have continued to rally led primarily by lower Russian crop forecasts (where domestic food price inflation is also causing concern!), with the latest IGC figures also forecasting a further drop in global grain stocks over the 2024/5 season – taking them 83m (-12.5%) lower than the peak 7 years ago…expect more extreme price volatility in the coming weeks. MS


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