11th April 2025
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.2967 | -0.0129 | May25 | £169.00 | +£1.55 |
| £/€ | 1.1578 | -0.0269 | Nov25 | £184.40 | +£0.25 |
| Nymex Oil | $60.07 | -$2.97 | Nov26 | £192.00 | +£0.70 |
Note – Comparisons below are against values quoted in last report dated 4th April 2025.
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May25* | Nov25* | May25* | Nov25* | May25* | Nov25* | |
| Closing diff. | -£17 | –£19 | +£18 | +£7 | -£30 | -£49 |
| Change on week | +£0 | +£0 | +£0 | +£0 | +£0 | +£0 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- Weaker GBP against EURO supporting UK prices
- Rain forecasted in the UK next week which will help crop development and could bring some selling action
Update:
- IKAR sees the 2025 Russian grain harvest at 129.5mmt, above last year’s crop of 126mmt.
- Turkey resumed purchasing of Russian wheat after lifting import restrictions in March.
- Strategie Grains sees EU 2025/26 wheat crop at 128.1mmt vs 113.3mmt last year, Corn crop 60.1mmt vs 58.4mmt and barley 51.2mmt vs 49.7mmt.
Update:
- Dry weather in Argentina favourable to ongoing corn harvest. Wet weather in Brazil could hamper Corn/Soybean harvesting but will benefit Safrina crop.
- The Rosario Grains Exchange raised their 2024/25 Argentine corn production estimate from 44.5mmt to 48.5mmt and Soybeans down from 46.5mmt to 45.5mmt
- Reports of China buying up to 40 cargoes of Brazil soybeans for May to Aug shipment.
- China lowers overall 24 crop Corn imports to 7.0mmt from last reported figure of 9.0mmt, with the USDA previously forecasting 8.0mm.
USDA Headlines from Thursday’s report:
- USDA reduces wheat exports for Russia, Australia and the EU but increases them for Canada and Ukraine.
- Corn production is unchanged for both Argentina and Brazil but these estimates are above many trade predictions.
- China wheat imports are cut by 3mmt to 3.5mmt. China wheat imports last season were 13.64mmt
- China corn imports are unchanged at 8mmt.
- Analysts forecast an increase in US corn exports but a decrease in US wheat exports.
Its incredibly difficult to predict any market in the world with ongoing tariff talks. Feels like a game between the US and China now who can get to the highest number first. Generally, markets are dropping on tariff announcements and recovering on any break or proposed trade agreements. Within in this currency is incredibly volatile so from day to day the cheapest origin is changing. Fundamentals are out of the window for a while until this talk quietens down. News from the UK is incredibly quiet with still a fair amount of physical product to shift but not much trade happening.
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