7-11 Jun 2021
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.42 | u/c | Nov21 | £175.45 | -£1.15 |
| £/€ | 1.16 | u/c | May22 | £180.45 | -£0.45 |
| Nymex Oil | $70.29 | +$1.46 | Nov22 | £168.00 | +£0.90 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov21* | Nov22* | Nov21* | Nov22* | Nov21* | Nov22* | |
| Closing differential | +£5 | +£14 | +£8 | +£9 | -£5 | -£21 |
| Change on week | u/c | -£1 | u/c | +£1 | +£12 | +£8 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- Strategie Grains held their 2021 UK wheat crop forecast at 14.8m (vs 9.9m in 2020) with trade consensus currently in the range of 14.5-15.5m.
Update:
- EU-27 2020/1 season soft wheat exports total 24.7m (vs 33.3m last ytd), barley exports 7.0m (vs 7.0m), maize imports 13.6m (vs 18.9m)
- At 7 June, Agrimer rated the 2021 French soft wheat crop at 81% good/excellent (vs 80% last week; 56% last ytd), winter barley 76% (vs 76%; 52%), spring barley 86% (vs 84%; 54%), maize 91% (vs 93%; 83%)
- Agritel forecast the 2021 French soft wheat crop at 38m (vs 29.2m in 2020)
- French Farm Min forecasts the 2021 osr crop at a 20-year low 2.95m (vs 3.25m in 2020)
- French Farm Min estimates the 2021 maize area at 1.42m ha (vs 1.61m in 2020)
- Bulgarian Ag-Min forecasts the 2021 wheat crop at 5.6-5.8m (vs 4.7m in 2020)
- Strategie Grains revised EU-27 2021 production forecasts include: soft wheat 131.1m (vs 129.6m last month; 119.4m in 2020), barley 53.9m (vs 53.7m; 55.5m), maize 65.3m (vs 65.2m; 63.2m), all cereals 290.1m (vs 288.1m; 277.7m)
Update:
- IKAR increased their 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast twice his week to 82m (vs 79.5m last week;85.9m in 2020)
- UkrAgro forecast the 2021 Ukrainian wheat crop at 28.8m (vs 27.6m previous forecast; 24.9m in 2020), barley 8.4m (vs 8.2m; 7.6m)
- Algeria bought 480k milling wheat for Jul-Aug shipment @ $298 cif
- Increased talk about disappointing cereal yields across Iran, Turkey and Pakistan which could lead to 2021 crops being revised lower…one to follow.
- Abares revised Australian 2021 crop forecasts: wheat 27.8m (vs 25m previous forecast; 33.4m in 2020), barley 10.4m (vs 8.8m; 12.1m), osr 4.2m (vs 3.5m; 4.3m)
- At 6 June, US 2021 winter wheat crop rated 50% good/excellent (vs 48% last week; 51% last ytd), spring wheat 38% (vs 43%; 82%), maize 72% (vs 76%; 75%)
- At 1 June 24% of the US maize area was reported to be in drought (vs 4% last ytd), 79% of the spring wheat area (vs 16%), 27% of the winter wheat area (vs 21%)…one to follow.
- Informa cut their 2020/1 Brazilian maize crop forecast to 88m (vs 93m previous forecast; 102.6m in 2019/20)
- USDA report forecasts end 2020/1 US maize stocks at 28.1m (vs 31.9m last month; 48.7m end 2019/20), wheat 23.2m (vs 23.7m; 28.0m)
- USDA report forecasts global 2021/2 all grains production at 2798m (vs 2790m last month; 2715m in 2020/1), use 2796m (vs 2791; 2746m), end stocks 783m (vs 784m; 782m)
Comments:
European crops continue to prosper whilst US production remains at risk from creeping drought, which now covers a quarter of the key (a third of global production) maize crop; a largely bland USDA report further tightened old crop stocks but maintained optimistic global 2021 production forecasts…something for everyone. MS
