15 – 19 April 2024
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.25 | u/c | May24 | £173.00 | +£3.00 |
| £/€ | 1.17 | u/c | Nov24 | £195.15 | +£0.90 |
| Nymex Oil | $82.73 | -$2.29 | Nov25 | £196.70 | -£1.40 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May24 | Nov24* | May24 | Nov24* | May24 | Nov24* | |
| Closing diff. | -£15 | –£20 | +£4 | –£3 | -£38 | -£50 |
| Change on week | -£7 | -£4 | +£2 | u/c | -£3 | -£3 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- UK CPI for Mar24 fell to 3.2% (vs 3.4% in Feb24)…the lowest inflation figure since Sep21.
Update:
- Still no EU import/export figures due to ongoing technical issues.
- German Co-ops Association, DRV, forecasts the 2024 wheat crop at 20.6m (vs 21.6m in 2023), winter barley 9.3m (vs 9.6m), spring barley 1.8m (vs 1.4m), osr 3.9m (vs 4.2m).
- French Farm Min estimates the 2024 soft wheat area at 4.39m ha (vs 4.76m in 2023), winter barley 1.30m ha (vs 1.38m), spring barley 0.50m ha (vs 0.45m), osr 1.33m ha (vs 1.34m) with the total area sown to crops put 6% lower yoy and the wheat area the 2nd lowest in 30 years.
- At 15 Apr, AgriMer rated the 2024 French soft wheat crop at 64% good/excellent (vs 64% last week; 93% last ytd), winter barley 67% (vs 67%; 91%), spring barley 63% (vs 60%; 95%) with 12% of the maize crop sown (vs 3%; 17%).
Update:
- Ukrainian Ag-Min forecasts 2024 wheat production at 19.2m (vs 22.2m in 2023), barley 4.9m (vs 5.7m), maize 26.7m (vs 30.5m), all grains 52.4m (vs 60.0m).
- Dry conditions persisting across Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia…one to keep following.
- Egypt bought 120k Ukrainian milling wheat (2 x 60k) @ $255.35 and $256.60 cif for 20-30 May shipment.
- Chinese Jan-Mar24 wheat imports reported at 1.8m (vs 1.3m last ytd), barley 4.4m (vs 1.7m), maize 7.9m (vs 7.5m).
- At 14 Apr, the US winter wheat crop was rated 55% good/excellent (vs 56% last week; 27% last ytd) with the maize crop 6% planted (vs 3%; 7%).
- Refinitiv forecast the 2024 US maize crop at 379m (vs 383m last month; 390m USDA estimate for crop23).
- Buenos Aries Exchange forecasts the 2024/5 Argentinean wheat area at 5.9m ha (vs 5.9m in 2023/4; 6.3m 5-year average)
- IGC 2024/5 forecast 2024/5 global wheat production at 798m (vs 799m last month; 789m in 2023/4) with ending stocks put at 259m (vs 262m; 264m); maize production 1226m (vs 1233m; 1223m), end stock 291m (vs 297m; 289m); wheat + coarse grains production 2322m (vs 2332m; 2301m), end stock 592m (vs 601m; 591m)
Another very quiet week, with the latest exchange of missiles between Israel/Iran and Russia/Ukraine failing to ignite grain markets. MS