27 Nov – 1 Dec 2023
|Currency / Oil:||Close||Change on week||LIFFE Wheat:||Close||Change on|
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
|Change on week||+£4||+£2||-£2||-£3||-£1||-£2|
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
- GB Jul-Oct23 commercial animal feed production reported at 3.52m (vs 3.66m last ytd) with feed wheat use put at 1.06m (vs 1.09m), barley 0.38m (vs 0.37m), maize 0.11m (vs 0.14m).
- UK Jul-Oct23 wheat use for milling (including starch + ethanol) reported at 2.17m (vs 1.99m last ytd) including home-grown 1.80m (vs 1.70m), imported 0.37m (vs 0.29m), with barley use for malting put at 0.64m (vs 0.63m).
- AHDB opening 2023/4 season UK balance sheets estimate the 2023 wheat crop at 14.1m (vs 15.5m in 2022) and forecast the 2023/4 exportable wheat surplus at 0.95m (vs 2.04m); barley crop 7.0m (vs 7.4m), exportable surplus 1.41m (vs 1.59m).
- EU-27 2023/4 season soft wheat exports to date reported at 12.0m (vs 14.7m last ytd), barley exports 2.8m (vs 2.8m), maize imports 7.1m (vs 12.3m)…Bulgarian data still missing!
- French Dec23 soft wheat sales to China rumoured to have been rolled into the Mar/May24 period.
- At 27/11, AgriMer reported that the 2024 French winter soft wheat crop was 83% sown (vs 74% last week; 99% last ytd; 95% 5-year average) with the crop rated 80% good/excellent (vs 83% last week; 98% last ytd); winter barley 92% sown (vs 86%; 100%; 98%) and rated 82% good/excellent (vs 85%; 97%).
- IKAR forecast the 2024 Russian wheat crop at 92m (vs 91.5m in 2023) with Sov-Econ putting the crop at 89.8m.
- Russia proposing a mechanism to trigger an export ban should domestic grain stocks fall below 10m…details as yet unclear, but for now stocks look set to remain comfortably above this level.
- Morocco announced a scheme to allow the import of 2.5m soft wheat over Jan-Apr24, in an attempt to build domestic stocks.
- At 26/11 the 2024 US winter wheat crop was rated 50% good/excellent (vs 48% last week; 34% last ytd)…this is the last condition update until spring 2024 and is the highest rating at this stage since 2019.
- Buenos Aries Exchange forecasts the 2023/4 Argentinean wheat crop at 14.7m (vs 14.7m last month; 12.2m in 2022/3) with recent rains stabilising yield prospects.
- Conab forecast Brazilian 2023/4 sugarcane production at a record 678m (vs 653m previous forecast; 611m in 2022/3)
- Patria Agronegocios forecast the 2023/4 Brazilian maize crop at 112.5m (vs 131.4m in 2022/3), soyabeans 150.7m (vs 154.1m)…both well below other analyst’s forecasts.
A choppy week with prices see-sawing around in the absence of any significant fundamental developments…expect increased daily price volatility on the run up to Christmas! MS