10th January 2025
Note – comparisons below are against values quoted in the last Exec Summary dated 3rd Jan. 2025
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.2304 | -0.076 | May25 | £189.10 | -£4.90 |
| £/€ | 1.1944 | -0.0107 | Nov25 | £193.40 | -£1.80 |
| Nymex Oil | $73.92 | +$1.10 | Nov26 | £203.40 | -£1.80 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May25* | Nov25* | May25* | Nov25* | May25* | Nov25* | |
| Closing diff. | -£25 | –£15 | +£8 | +£5 | -£43 | -£50 |
| Change on week | +£2 | +£2 | +£1 | +£1 | +£2 | +£2 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- UK wheat futures fell almost £5 from last report with most traders returning from Christmas holidays and selling the market
- Milling premiums continue to fall with imported wheat being favoured by millers especially in the North of the country
- Labour government’s approval ratings are at record lows just a few months after the election with business and consumer sentiment severely depressed, weaking GBP has stopped UK grain prices falling further
Update:
- Grain terminal operator Senalia, which operates at France’s biggest grain port Rouen, said it expected to ship 1.6 mmt of cereals in 2024/25, down from 3.85 mmt in previous year.
- Germany confirms first case of foot-and-mouth disease in nearly 40 years.
Update:
- US dollar remains firm on rising treasury yields. Yield on the benchmark 10 year U.S. Treasury note hitting 4.73% on Wednesday, its highest since April 25. It was at 4.66% on Thursday
- US corn, soybeans and wheat export sales this week, all disappointing vs trade estimates
- China’s Ag Ministry today raised their 2024/25 corn production estimate from 293.8 mmt to 294.9 mmt, with imports down from 13 mmt to 9 mmt this month
- Argentina received much needed rains, although only in some areas and more are needed. However, there are differing views on current weather forecasts and much rain will be received int he next 10-15 days. ONE TO WATCH
Strange situation on global markets at the moment with difficulty to find bullish arguments but with world values much lower than last year a lot of bearish news has been priced in already. World SND’s will struggle to find a bullish argument unless big surprises in today’s USDA report. Likely to see some volatility in the market but difficult to call a significant sustained move either way. Any significant weather markets yet to appear..
USDA January report released on 10th Jan 2025 at 5pm (GMT)
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