29 Nov – 3 Dec 2021
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.33 | u/c | May22 | £235.20 | -£4.00 |
| £/€ | 1.18 | u/c | Nov22 | £204.80 | -£5.20 |
| Nymex Oil | $66.50 | -$11.89 | Nov23 | £186.10 | -£1.65 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May22* | Nov22* | May22* | Nov22* | May22* | Nov22* | |
| Closing differential | -£8 | +£16 | +£15 | +£19 | -£63 | -£42 |
| Change on week | -£5 | -£7 | -£5 | +£1 | +£2 | +£3 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- AHDB report Jul-Oct GB wheat use for milling (including starch/ethanol) at 1.99m (vs 1.95m last ytd) including 1.55m homegrown (vs 1.60m) and 0.44m imported (vs 0.45m).
- AHDB report Jul-Oct GB barley use for malt at 0.60m (vs 0.54m)
- AHDB report Jul-Oct GB wheat use in animal feed at 1.43m (vs 1.43m), barley 0.55m (0.51m), maize 0.13m (vs 0.17m), oats 36k (vs 19k)
Update:
- EU-27 2021/2 season soft wheat exports to date total 11.6m (vs 10.5m last ytd), barley exports 4.1m (vs 3.4m), maize imports 5.2m (vs 7.1m)…now includes some updated French data.
- At 29/11 Agri-Mer rated the 2022 French soft wheat crop at 99% good/excellent (vs 99% last week; 96% last ytd), winter barley 98% (vs 99%; 94%).
- EU Commision increased their 2021 EU-27 maize crop estimate to 68.4m (vs 67.8m last month; 64.9m in 2020).
- EU Parliament has approved the 2023-2027 CAP proposals which will eventually see 25% of farm subsidies being spent on ‘eco-schemes’, all payments being subject to environmental scheme compliance and a minimum of 10% of total payments being reserved for ‘smaller farms’.
Update:
- Ukrainian Ag-Min report Jul-Nov grain exports at 25.3m including wheat 14.5m, maize 5.5m, barley 4.9m; with the 2021 cereal crop forecast at 80.9m (vs 65m in 2020) and 2021/2 season exports at 62.5m (vs 45.5m)…both big records.
- Ukr-Agro increased their 2021 Ukrainian maize crop forecast to 38.5m (vs 38.2m previous forecast; 30.3m in 2020)…lower than most other analysts.
- Egypt bought 600k Black Sea origin wheat for 9-20 Jan shipment @ $376-379 cif ($4-7 higher than the price they paid last week) with Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Jordan, Bangladesh and Tunisia also either buying or tendering for wheat.
- Abares forecast the 2021 Australian wheat crop at a record 34.4m (vs 32.7m previous forecast; 33.3m in 2020), barley 13.3m (vs 12.5m; 13.1m), osr 5.7m (vs 5.0m; 4.5m) with total crop production hitting a record 58.4m (vs 52.2m).
- UN FAO global food price index increased to a 10-year high at 134.4 in Nov 21 (vs 132.8 in Oct21; 109.1 in Nov20).
- Forecasts starting to turn dry across Argentina and Southern Brazil (La Nina?) which is not a concern yet but is one to follow very closely.
Comments:
A very turbulent week with grain markets initially crashing, on uncertainty about the impact of the omicron variant, before rebounding on the back of strong international buying demand….expect more of the same in the coming weeks. MS