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Weekly Executive Summary
September 24, 2021

13 – 17 Sep 2021

Currency / Oil:CloseChange on weekLIFFE Wheat:CloseChange on
week
£/$1.37-0.01Nov21£194.50+£3.85
£/€1.17u/cMay22£200.00+£3.80
Nymex Oil$73.30+$0.69Nov22£178.00+£2.75

Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:

CBOT/LIFFECBOT/LIFFEMATIF/LIFFEMATIF/LIFFECBOT/LIFFE(Corn/FdWht)
Nov21*Nov22*Nov21*Nov22*Nov21*Nov22*
Closing differential215221543-£33
Change on week-£1+£2u/c+£2-£3+£1
Note:
1.      Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2.      Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3.      Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4.      All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends

Update:

  • Final 2020/1 Defra balance sheet highlights very tight ending stocks, with wheat put at 1.42m (vs 2.44m end 2019/20) and barley 1.06m (vs 1.36m) in a season where wheat imports hit 2.43m (vs 1.06m) and maize 2.86m (vs 2.38m).

Update:

  • EU-27 2021/2 season wheat exports reported at 6.5m (vs 4.6m last ytd), barley exports 2.4m (vs 2.0m), maize imports 3.1m (vs 3.8m).
  • Strategie Grains estimate that 60% of the EU-27 2021 wheat crop has met milling grade (vs 73% in 2020).
  • Rumours of Chinese buying of French (and US) wheat pushed Matif close to contract highs again this week.

Update:

  • SovEcon slightly increased their 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast to 75.6m (vs 75.4m previous forecast; 85.9m in 2020) on good Siberian yields.
  • Russian Ag-Min forecasts 2021 cereal production at 103.1m (vs 119m in 2020) with rumours of exports quotas being introduced from Jan22…one to follow.
  • APK Inform forecast the 2021 Ukrainian cereal crop at a record 80.6m (vs 65m in 2020) including wheat 31.2m, maize 37.8m and barley 9.4m, with 2021/2 season cereal exports forecast at an impressive 57m (vs 45.5m).
  • Kazakh Ag-Min forecasts their 2021 cereal crop at 16.0m (vs 15.3m previous forecast; 20.1m in 2020)
  • Pakistan leading the charge to buy wheat this week confirming a 575k purchase at $383.50 cif for Nov/Dec shipment and announcing a new tender for 640k.
  • Chinese Jan-Aug21 maize imports reported at 21.4m (vs 5.6m last ytd), wheat 7.0m (vs 5.0m), barley 7.1m (vs 3.3m).
  • At 19 Sep, the 2021 US maize crop was rated 59% good/excellent (vs 58% last week; 61% last ytd) with harvest now 10% complete, soyabeans 58% (vs 57%; 63%) harvest 6%
  • Informa forecast the 2021 US maize crop at 382m (vs 381m latest USDA forecast; 360m in 2020), soyabeans 119m (vs 119m, 113m).
  • Informa forecast 2022 US wheat area at 48.5m ac (vs 47m in 2021) and forecast the crop at 55.4m (vs 46.5m).
  • US EPA looks set to propose reduced biofuel blending mandates for 2021 and 2022…one to follow.
  • IGC increased their 2021/2 global wheat+coarse grain production forecast to 2289m (vs 2283m last month; 2213m in 2020/1), use 2288m (vs 2288m; 2230m), end stock 599m (vs 589m; 598m)

Comments:

Talk of Chinese wheat buying and possible Russian export quotas combined to push markets higher again this week…and keep the bulls in control for now.      MS

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