27th June 2025
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on prev. | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.3727 | +0.0026 | Nov25 | £176.30 | -£7.95 |
| £/€ | 1.1732 | +0.0020 | May26 | £188.25 | -£6.85 |
| Nymex Oil | $73.50 | -$8.26 | Nov26 | £189.35 | -£6.65 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-25* | May-26 | Nov-25* | May-26 | Nov-25* | May-26 | |
| Closing diff. | -£27 | –£30 | +£2 | +£3 | -£56 | -£60 |
| Change on week | –£10 | -£10 | -£2 | –£2 | –£1 | –£3 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- AHDB: Winter wheat crops have slightly improved in condition with wheat at 38% Good or Excellent against 36% in May. Winter barley, oats and rapeseed have all improved by a similar amount. Spring crops continue to struggle.
- ABF are to begin consultations with 150 staff at its Vivergo bioethanol business in Hull “to effect an orderly wind-down”.
- UK barley harvest likely to start w/c 30th June although some rain forecast for next week.
Update:
- Hot dry weather in Europe putting crops under stress.
- Agrifirmer: French crops rated 68% Good or Excellent, which is the same as last week.
- Sovecon: Russia’s wheat estimate raised to 83.0mmt, with overall grain production at 129.5mmt.
- EU Commission raise EU soft wheat production to 128mmt. This along with a strong EURO have pushed Sep and Dec Matif to contract lows.
Update:
- Egypt buys significant amount of wheat for July/August delivery. Estimates of around 500kmt. Likely to be supplied from Russia, Romania and Ukraine.
- Agroconsult: Brazilian second corn crop production estimate at a record 123.3mmt.
- China buying old and new crop Australian barley to keep prices underpinned somewhat.
- StatsCan: 2025 Canadian wheat area forecast 26.9m acres, up from 26.6m the previous season and Canola at 21.5m acres against 22.0m the previous season.
- The US and China announced a trade deal this week, however it did not include agriculture products.
The market has been incredibly weak in the last 7 days with tensions in the middle east cooling somewhat. US markets have been well down on favourable conditions and even though it remains hot and dry in Europe, Matif and LIFFE wheat have also taken a tumble. Funds remain short to keep the pressure on but as before we need something significant to happen to not only lift markets but sustain prices upwards. All eyes on yields now as Europe begins to harvest, there may even be some barley cut in the UK with temperatures touching 30 degrees.
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