4th July 2025
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on prev. | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.3654 | -0.0072 | Nov25 | £177.15 | +0.85 |
| £/€ | 1.1614 | -0.0118 | May26 | £188.85 | +£0.60 |
| Nymex Oil | $67.00 | +$1.76 | Nov26 | £191.25 | +£1.90 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-25* | May-26 | Nov-25* | May-26 | Nov-25* | May-26 | |
| Closing diff. | -£21 | –£25 | +£3 | +£5 | -£51 | -£55 |
| Change on week | +£6 | +£5 | +£1 | +£2 | +£5 | +£5 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- Barley harvest started in the UK. To early to determine yield and quality thus far.
- Trade slow with little demand and sellers turned off by current prices.
- Even reports of wheat cut today! Must be a record for wheat harvest!?
Update:
- French wheat ratings dropped 1% whilst harvesting continues. French yield forecasts are at 6.8t/ha.
- Despite droughts Germany’s grain harvest is forecast to increase from 39.0mmt last year to 40.1mmt this year.
- Czech stats bureau increases grain production slightly to 6.82mmt.
- EU imports of Ukrainian wheat increased to 1.3mmt.
- SovEcon report disappointing early yields in Russia putting into question crop size estimates.
- Heatwave in Europe brings concerns for Corn crop.
Update:
- Stone X increases total corn production for Brazil’s 2024-25 harvest to 136.1mmt, up from 134.0mmt estimated last month.
- Jordan bought 60kmt of milling wheat in recent tender.
- Rumours of Trump announcing trade pact with China on US products supporting markets.
- Rain forecast in Australia should bring season totals up to yearly average. Crop production increased slightly for 25/26 on the back of this.
- Argentina’s agricultural exports break records with 64.5mmt of grains exported in the first 6 months of 2025.
- Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240kmt of Corn.
Markets have been relatively flat this week looking for direction before we see significant harvest action. Yields are being monitored to closely to see if production estimates will be increased or decreased. Generally, Europe looks ok but a few question marks over the big Russian forecast and Ukraine also. Extreme heat in Europe will help accelerate harvest but could put corn crops under significant stress.
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