22-26 July 2024
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.29 | -0.01 | Nov24 | £193.25 | +£2.00 |
| £/€ | 1.19 | u/c | May25 | £204.00 | +£2.50 |
| Nymex Oil | $78.28 | -$4.54 | Nov25 | £196.75 | +£2.25 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov24* | Nov25* | Nov24* | Nov25* | Nov24* | Nov25* | |
| Closing diff. | -£33 | –£20 | £0 | +£3 | -£64 | -£56 |
| Change on week | u/c | -£3 | +£3 | -£1 | +£5 | +£2 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- MARS crops monitoring unit forecast 2024 UK wheat yield at 7.7t/ha (vs 7.8 last month; 8.1 in 2023), barley 6.2t/h a (vs 6.3; 6.1)…based on ADHB plantings data this would imply a 2024 wheat crop of 12.0m and barley 7.5m.
Update:
- EU-27 2024/5 season soft wheat exports to date reported at 1.44m (vs 2.21m last ytd), barley exports 0.53m (vs 0.92m), maize imports 1.42m (vs 1.02m).
- At 22/7, Agri-Mer rated the 2024 French maize crop at 82% good/excellent (vs 81% last week; 81% last ytd), spring barley 66% (vs 69%; 73%).
- MARS forecast the EU-27 2024 soft wheat yield at 5.87t/ha (vs 5.86 last month; 5.81 in 2023), winter barley 5.76t/ha (vs 5.96; 6.03), spring barley 4.44t/ha (vs 4.39; 3.18), maize 7.24t/ha (vs 7.55; 7.51), osr 3.10t/ha (vs 3.16; 3.17).
- EU Commission forecast the 2024 EU-27 soft wheat crop at 120.8m (vs 121.9m last month; 125.5m in 2023), barley 52.7m (vs 53.4m; 47.4m), maize 62.9m (vs 64.8m; 62.7m).
Update:
- SovEcon increased their 2024 Russian wheat crop forecast to 84.2m (vs 84.1m last month; 92.8m in 2023) with all grain production increased to 130.5m (vs 127.4m; 144.9m).
- Ukraine 1-26 July grain exports reported at 3.0m (vs 1.9m last ytd) including wheat 1.2m, maize 1.4m, barley 0.4m…a very strong start.
- At 21/7, the US 2024 maize crop was rated 67% good/excellent (vs 68% last week; 57% last ytd), soyabeans 68% (vs 68%; 54%), spring wheat 77% (vs 77%; 49%).
- Crop tour across N Dakota forecasts the average 2024 Hard Red Spring wheat yield at 54.5 bu/ac (vs 47.4 in 2023; 42.0 5-year average)….this is the highest yield forecast in the 30-year history of the tour.
A relatively quiet news week in the grain markets, with farmers distracted by harvest (some decent weather at last!) and buyers relaxed given plentiful nearby supplies…let’s hope that the weather holds, and the markets start to liven up next week! MS
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