11 – 15 Nov 2024
| Currency / Oil: | Close | Change on week | LIFFE Wheat: | Close | Change on week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £/$ | 1.27 | -0.03 | Nov24 | £174.85 | -£4.15 |
| £/€ | 1.20 | u/c | May25 | £187.40 | -£4.65 |
| Nymex Oil | $68.70 | -$3.66 | Nov25 | £185.65 | -£4.60 |
Wheat Futures Market Comparisons:
| CBOT/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | MATIF/LIFFE | CBOT/LIFFE | (Corn/FdWht) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov24* | Nov25* | Nov24* | Nov25* | Nov24* | Nov25* | |
| Closing diff. | -£22 | –£14 | +£1 | +£3 | -£45 | -£51 |
| Change on week | -£4 | -£2 | +£1 | -£1 | +£5 | +£5 |
1. Cbot/Liffe Nov* and Matif/Liffe Nov * compares Cbot and Matif Dec with Liffe Nov
2. Relevant forward exchange rates are used to convert to Sterling equivalents
3. Prices are based on Thursday pm market closes. Nymex oil = front month position.
4. All figures are approximate and intended solely to illustrate trends
Update:
- Strategie Grains forecast the 2025 UK wheat area at 1.65m ha (vs 1.53m in 2024); barley 1.14m ha (vs 1.19m) including winter barley 0.39m ha (vs 0.38m) and spring barley 0.75m ha (vs 0.81m)…given a very open autumn, it feels like the wheat area should be higher.
Update:
- EU-27 2024/5 season soft wheat exports to date reported at 8.3m (vs 11.9m last ytd), barley exports 1.8m (vs 2.8m), maize imports 7.1m (vs 6.6m).
- French Farm Min estimates the 2024 soft wheat crop at 25.6m (vs 25.4m last month; 35.1m in 2023).
- Agri-Mer forecast French 2024/5 season soft wheat exports at 9.8m (vs 9.9m last month; 16.6m in 2023/4) with ending stocks put at 2.8m (vs 2.5m; 3.2m).
- At 11/11, Agrimer reported that the 2024 maize harvest was 71% complete (vs 58% last week; 96% last ytd) with the 2025 soft wheat crop 78% planted (vs 62%; 96%).
- Strategie Grains revised EU-27 production estimates: soft wheat 114.4m (vs 114.4m last month; 127.1m in 2023), barley 50.5m (vs 50.6m; 47.8m), maize 58m (vs 58.1m; 62.9m), all cereals 258.2m (vs 258.5m; 271.9m).
- Strategie Grains forecast the EU-27 crop25 soft wheat area at 21.4m ha (vs 21.5m last month; 20.4m in 2024), winter barley 4.8m ha (vs 4.8m; 4.9m), spring barley 5.3m ha (vs 5.3m; 5.4m), maize 8.2m ha (vs 8.1m; 8.7m).
Update:
- Sovecon estimate the 2024 Russian wheat crop at 81.4m (vs 81.5m last month; 92.8m in 2023) and forecast the 2025 crop at 81.6m (vs 80.1m; 81.4m).
- Ukrainian Ag-Min estimates the 2024 wheat crop at 22.5m (vs 21.6m in 2023), maize 25.0m (vs 30.5m).
- Russian Grain Union forecasts 2024/5 season grain exports at 45m (vs 55.5m in 2023/4).
- Russian 12.5% milling wheat reportedly offered at $230 fob for Jan25 shipment (vs floor price of $250!).
- APK Inform forecasts 2024/5 Ukrainian grain exports at 37.3m (vs 51m in 2023/4).
- At 10/11, the 2025 US winter wheat crop was rated 44% good/excellent (vs 41% last week; 47% last ytd; 45% average) with 43% of the crop in drought (vs 57% last week; 44% last ytd)
- The eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to cool with the US CPC forecasting at 57% chance that La Nina will form by the end of Dec24…one to follow closely.
- Conab revised 2024/5 Brazilian production forecasts: maize 119.8m (vs 119.7m last month; 115.7m in ‘23/4), soyabeans 166.1m (166.1m; 147.4m), wheat 8.1m (8.3m; 8.3m).
- USDA forecasts the 2024 US maize crop at 385m (vs 386m last month; 390m in 2023), soyabeans 121.4m (vs 124.7m; 113.4m).
Markets under pressure again this week, with Russian milling wheat being offered at $20 under the supposed minimum price and drought conditions easing across the US winter wheat belt. MS
Note – the next Executive Summary will be issued on Friday 29 November.
Tel: Swaffham 01760 725516 / Tadcaster 01937 530709